Is the market still rewarding risk assets?

The impacts of eclipse season on US markets are already being felt, but is there more to come?

If you’ve watched my predictions on how the eclipses will affect markets, then you know we haven’t even gotten into the debt crisis drama of things yet.

However, although lower in risk assets is possible, liquidity from central banks is starting to increase.

Historically this liquidity takes anywhere from 11-13 weeks to be seen in prices throughout global markets.

Which raises the question:

Are retail investors panicking at the wrong time?

To be blunt, and to cut to the chase:

Venus and Mercury Retrograde, as well as the first lunar eclipse should be done with their “market damage” by mid April.

By the end of April into early May, I predict a profit taking opportunity will arise.

If that opportunity doesn’t arise,

Then market participants remaining in the Equities market might be waiting for Jerome Powell at the US Federal Reserve to save them (print money).

2025 will not be as friendly to market participants as it was in 2024.

Volatility near the top will shake many people out.

This is why I’ve repeatedly encouraged the inexperienced to exit in Q1 and Q2 this year.

What am I doing with my main portfolio?

These are things I discuss in my premium newsletter.

I’m just sharing all this information above because I know it's been a rough bull market for so many people.

Last week was very important, and last week was quite Bearish. Particularly in US equities.

So I'm out of the S&P500, and I rotated that money into Gold. (not financial advice).

Bitcoin is over sold, but market sentiment is so Bearish that bitcoin is neutral to me. I got into my Bitcoin positions for this bull run in 2023 and 2024 (as longer subscribers know) so I’m just holding.

In short, US equities are going to have a rough time without the United States government giving the markets a helping hand. Macroeconomics and financial strategy suggest that they will, so it's about being patient, and being able to be in positions that protect and or make you money until that happens.

This isn't financial advice, but that implies assets like gold, and short term T-bills.

If you want to trade 2025 well, you will need to be able to flip-flop from defensive positions like gold and short term T-bills, back into equities and crypto when the moment is right.

Most market participants are used to bull runs that just go up.

Because this one will zigzag, it will destroy the emotions and accounts of the market participants who just expect markets to just go up.

Take profits in 2025, and remember, always have a plan for what you will do if the market goes in the opposite direction than you expect, before risking amounts of money that you can afford to lose.

Anything else is gambling.

To your success,

-Sama

P.S. - Premium newsletter subscribers, as promised, I have a mid month update on my thoughts about how the market’s very critical eclipse season moves last week will impact the bull run. And a warning - some of you might catch a bruised ego after this one but it will be to your benefit in the long run. Watch the video below.

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